Looking To The Future

Even if Internet shopping has not yet taken off and proved to be a success as rapidly as had been predicted, it still doesn't mean that it isn't going to be a significant part of our future.

"The Internet will be the first port of call before going down to the shop. People will type in their specifications for a Japanese hi-fi and use the Internet to find the best deal. But they will still probably want to go to the store to hear what it sounds like"¹⁷

Further advancement in technologies and Web design will mean many labour-saving devices that will more than likely enhance, rather than replace, the methods in use today. Most of the high-profile e-commerce sites around today have evolved gradually so it may just be early days for businesses setting up shop in Cyberspace. It will take time for them to establish themselves and build the ever important reputation.

At the European Forrester Forum in London in May 1997 the president of the International Research Organisation, George Colony, stated that the Web was dead. It was his opinion that the Web was "not suitable for the serious business of Internet commerce." He claimed that visitors to business Web sites wanted action, not entertainment and described the contemporary design of Web pages as "Commerce Interuptus." Yet at the same forum it was estimated that by the year 2000 Internet shopping would be worth 6.5 billion dollars, a significant increase from the 1.1 billion dollars estimated in 1997. Furthermore it was predicted that:

"Internet shopping will become the fourth delivery channel for goods and services after face to face, postal delivery and the telephone."¹⁸

One more factor that is bound to affect the success of Internet commerce is the overall cost of the equipment needed to get connected. With the prices of home PCs falling and the general increase in availability to a wider range of household incomes and also the up and coming multi-channel digital television it will be increasingly more accessible.

"Consumer behaviour in the future will increasingly feature shopping on demand and consumers will cease to be held hostage to the time and place constraints historically imposed on them by businesses. Shopping on demand will include anytime, anywhere procurement as well as anytime, anywhere consumption."¹⁹

The concept of imalls, Internet 'shopping centres', were thought to be the way of the future for online shopping but haven't turned out to be the success people expected, since no site is more than a mouse click away anyway. Web sites already link like with like, forming networks of related sites without the need for the imall 'front page'. On the Internet there isn't the need for stores to be lumped together as in real life, which becomes an advantage for businesses who then don't have to pay the high prices for the best location.

As with many other things in life, it is impossible to predict with certainty how the future of web design and online shopping will be, only to base estimations on the patterns that have emerged in the past. New technologies that have yet to be invented could revolutionise the Internet and in this sense we are still venturing into the unknown.

Chapter c | i | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | [6] | 7

¹⁷ Darrel James - retail analyst for the management consultancy KPMG Computer Weekly: Remote shopping set to take off (June 4 1998) p18

¹⁸ Quotes and statistics taken from Mark Vernon Network: End of the Web as we know it (759) The Independent (13 May 1997)

¹⁹ Peterson, R. A. Electronic Marketing and the Consumer, Sage Publications, Inc. London (1997) p28